"False Optimism" Compromising Fight Against Climate Change

Writing in Nature Reports Climate Change this week, researchers have called for a move away from the 'curious optimism' which they believe has characterised Governments' actions to date to tackle global warming.

Martin Parry, Jean Palutikof, Clair Hanson & Jason Lowe, members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that there is a "false optimism...obscuring reality" at major international climate change summits, hampering progress towards mitigation of the impacts of dangerous climate change.

Referencing the 2007 IPCC report, the authors state that a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% of 1990 levels by 2050 will be insufficient to prevent a 2 degree C rise in temperature by 2100. Due to inertia in the climate system, a warming trend will continue to 2100. They call for an 80% cut in emissions by 2050 as the only way to avoid dangerous climatic change. Under an 80% cut, the IPCC report indicates that there will be almost no chance of exceeding the 2 degree rise in 2050, and only a very small likelihood of reaching the 2 degree rise by 2100.

The article also stresses the vital importance of investing in measures to adapt to climate change immediately. "The sooner we recognize this delusion, confront the challenge and implement both stringent emissions cuts and major adaptation efforts, the less will be the damage that we and our children will have to live with."

Carbon Dioxide Levels Reach Record High

Latest figures published in the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have reached a high not seen in 650,000 years. Levels now stand at 387 parts per million (ppm), which is 40% higher than levels seen during the industrial revolution.

There are now fears that anthropogenic induced climate change has spun out of control, given that the average rate of input of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere has been higher in the last seven years (2.1 ppm per year) compared to the 1970-2000 average of 1.5ppm per year. The last four years have seen incremental rises in input of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, the chief greenhouse gas. This comes despite strong talk by governments on tackling climate change and stern advice from economists and top scientists concerning the imperative to reduce greenhouse gases. Some scientists now believe that this increase is down to the Earth losing its capacity to absorb the vast quantities of carbon dioxide being inputted to the atmosphere each year.

See the trend for the last four years on The Earth Systems Research Laboratory.

The BES invites members and readers of the blog to discuss these findings.