Historical Trends Show Food Security Threatened by Climate Change

Research published recently in Science illustrates the destabilising effect which extreme weather events have on agricultural productivity, and predicts that without significant investment now in adaptation measures, climate change will lead to major food crises in the next 100 years.

Based on an analysis of 23 global climate change models, researchers suggest that unusually hot summers, for example the 2003 heatwave in Europe, will become common by the end of this century. This heatwave, in which the temperature was 3.5oC above normal, led to 50,000 heat-related deaths and poor yields from grain and fruit crops across much of France and Italy.

Droughts in Africa from the 1960s to 90s, and consequent effect on crops, led to very many hunger-related deaths.

Examining these events, the researchers conclude that agricultural yields may fall by 20 - 40% over the next century as the climate warms, without investment in adaptation measures. They urge governments to prioritise research and development in climate change adaptation for agriculture, including investment in genomics, breeding, management and engineering.

Battisti, D.S. and Naylor, R.L. (2008). Historical Warnings of Food Security with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat. Science. 323: 240-244.

World Leaders Meet in Japan for G8 Summit

The leaders of the Group of Eight (G8) most industrialised nations meet in Japan today to discuss the challenges posed to global development by climate change, rising food prices and escalating energy costs.

UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, has called on the US to take the lead on fighting climate change, stating in an interview with AFP that "it's desirable for industrialised nations to lead by example". Ban said that "political will" was lacking in the fight against climate change. In the same article it is reported that the chief of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, has said it's unlikely that specific targets for emissions cuts will be agreed by leaders at the summit. However, he says he hopes for agreement to "a long-term commitment of a 50 per cent reduction by 2050 and a principle agreement for a mid term reduction [for each G8 nation]".

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is expected to call on G8 leaders to accelerate efforts to tackle global warming, seeing this as integral to the development agenda.

UK Government Ready to Reignite GM Debate

The UK Government is ready to explore once more the use of GM technology in crops, hoping that this will offer a solution to the current world food crisis. Phil Woolas, the UK's Environment Minister, has reportedly held private talks with the Agricultural Biotechnology Council, an umbrella group to promote the role of biotechnology in agriculture.

In an interview with the Independent newspaper yesterday, Mr Woolas said: "There is a growing question of whether GM crops can help the developing world out of the current food price crisis. It is a question that we as a nation need to ask ourselves." Prime Minister Gordon Brown yesterday called on leaders at an EU summit to consider relaxing rules on the import of GM animal feed, as a way of lowering food costs for the poorest countries.

The only GM food crops currently available commercially are those which have been grown to be herbicide or insect resistant. There are very legitimate concerns that extensive growth of such crops will severely impact on the biodiversity of the countryside; as broad-spectrum herbicides such as Monsanto's 'Roundup' indiscriminately affect wildlife. However, GM technology could offer benefits to developing countries if the focus was on research into higher yields, drought and disease resistance. Downing Street has commented that "GM crops are to be considered on a case-by-case basis, based solely on the science".

Does GM offer a solution to hunger and poverty in the developing world as food prices rise and food shortages threaten?
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