Historical Trends Show Food Security Threatened by Climate Change

Research published recently in Science illustrates the destabilising effect which extreme weather events have on agricultural productivity, and predicts that without significant investment now in adaptation measures, climate change will lead to major food crises in the next 100 years.

Based on an analysis of 23 global climate change models, researchers suggest that unusually hot summers, for example the 2003 heatwave in Europe, will become common by the end of this century. This heatwave, in which the temperature was 3.5oC above normal, led to 50,000 heat-related deaths and poor yields from grain and fruit crops across much of France and Italy.

Droughts in Africa from the 1960s to 90s, and consequent effect on crops, led to very many hunger-related deaths.

Examining these events, the researchers conclude that agricultural yields may fall by 20 - 40% over the next century as the climate warms, without investment in adaptation measures. They urge governments to prioritise research and development in climate change adaptation for agriculture, including investment in genomics, breeding, management and engineering.

Battisti, D.S. and Naylor, R.L. (2008). Historical Warnings of Food Security with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat. Science. 323: 240-244.

Severity of Global Warming Underestimated

Leading climate change scientist, Professor Chris Field has announced that the severity of global warming over the next century will be well beyond anything predicted.

Field, a senior member of the Nobel-prize winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC), revealed his findings at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Chicago on Saturday. He told the attendees that IPCC’s previous report on climate change in 2007 (of which he was co-author) had substantially underestimated the rate of global warming and the extent of the problem.

"We are basically looking now at a future climate that is beyond anything that we've considered seriously in climate policy," he said.

Increases in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000-2007 have accelerated more rapidly than forecast “primarily because developing countries, like China and India, increased their electric power generation, by burning more coal” he said. This means that temperatures rises could exceed 6.4 ^oC over the next century.

The temperature rises could cause large scale melting of permafrost in the Arctic and dry out tropical forests enough for wildfires to breakout. This would dramatically increase the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and have potentially devastating consequences for the global climate.

"Without effective action, climate change is going to be larger and more difficult to deal with than we thought," Field warned.

Read more about this story on the BBC news website and the Guardian news website

All Party Parliamentary Environment Group Discuss the Climate Change Act

The BES Policy Team recently attended an All Party Parliamentary Environment Group meeting at the House of Commons to discuss the Climate Change Act and the potential implications of its key provisions on economy and society in the UK.

Guest speaker Joan Ruddock (Labour MP) started off the session by describing the Climate Change Act as ‘ground breaking legislation’ that would contribute to the search for a global agreement on reducing emissions. She reviewed the key provisions of the Act and acknowledged that the Cap and Trade system, due to be enforced next year, is likely to be the most effective strategy for reducing C02 emissions in the UK. It is hoped that more schemes will be included in the system and that Cap and Trade strategies alone will save the UK 4 million tonnes of carbon each year by the year 2020.

Gathered from the discussion, participants were calling for the following:
• The need for the Government to begin to take action at the ground level to increase the energy efficiency of existing building stock, for example, provide a framework and budget for the installation of double glazing and insulation in existing buildings;
• A recognition that a global agreement on emission trading is essential; there are fears that European countries may be placed at a competitive disadvantage if they are the only ones required to have a cap and trade on emissions;
• The need for the public to have a more realistic understanding about the size and impact of their carbon footprint and how they can minimise it;
• The need to make public transport more attractive to the community and reduce dependency on private cars.

Participants also voiced concerns about whether it was sensible to press ahead with plans to build a third runway at Heathrow, considering the Government’s commitment to include emissions arising from the aviation industry in reduction targets. Ruddock empathised but argued that it was crucial for the economy to maintain a hub at Heathrow to prevent the UK from being out-competed by other EU members. It was stressed that this was not a decision that had been taken lightly and would be subject to constant scrutiny.

Ruddock concluded her lecture by stating that she intended the December international agreement in Copenhagen to be a ‘negotiation of substance’. The Climate Change Act should ensure that the mechanisms to create a low carbon economy will be in place in the UK by the time these talks commence. It is hoped that this will enable the UK play a big part in the discussions and that UK legislation will provide a ‘blue print for other countries to emulate’ when tacking the difficulties of climate change.

New Model Sheds Light on Mosquito Spread in a Changing Climate

A new study, published online in the British Ecological Society journal, Functional Ecology, uses an innovative model to predict the spread of human disease vectors in a changing climate. Warren Porter, at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, has developed a unique model, 'NicheMapper', which allows researchers to answer the question: "Where would a species with a particular set of properties best survive and function on the planet?" Uniquely, the model also allows an organisms potential for evolutionary change to be incorporated, allowing the researchers to examine a range of scenarios.

The study focused on the dengue fever vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, and on its distribution and abundance in Australia. At present, the mosquito is confined to areas around Queensland, however, by modelling the insect's life history traits, capacity to evolve and climate change scenarios, the researchers conclude that a warming climate will allow the mosquito to expand its range into several populated areas of the continent, over the next 40-years. These conclusions are also likely to apply to populations of the mosquito found elsewhere in the world.

The researchers found that onefactor limiting the ability of the mosquito to spread would be the availability of standing water in which to lay its eggs. Simple measures, such as covering pools and water tanks, could have a large effect in reducing the spread of the insect. However, NicheMapper also allowed the researchers to model the effects on the species' distribution if the mosquito evolved to develop eggs tolerant of dessication; observed in other closely related species. In this case, combined with climate change, the mosquito could spread far, and rapidly.

Warren Porter claims that NicheMapper can be used to model the spread of almost any species on the planet; for example mapping the likely pattern of spread of invasive species. He has developed a company, 'Animaps' to make the software available to the scientific and policy communities.

Finding a global solution to Climate Change: 26 January 2009

The Policy Team this afternoon attended a seminar organised by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) on ‘Brokering a global deal on climate change’. Speakers Joan Ruddock MP, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Climate Change, and Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, discussed the steps needed to secure assent to a comprehensive, truly global treaty on climate change in Copenhagen later this year.

The Copenhagen treaty, successor to the Kyoto agreement, could be judged a success if it contained the following, according to Mr de Boer:

• Clarity on quantifying emission limitation for developed countries.
• Clarity on nationally appropriate mitigation strategies in developing countries.
• Clarity on financial and technological support for mitigation and adaptation, involving innovative new methods of funding outwith carbon markets.
• Clarity on an institutional framework to deliver support for mitigation and adaptation measures.

The Minister stated that the UK Government was under no illusions about the size of the task as hand but stressed that Government’s commitment to tackling climate change would not falter in the face of the global economic crisis. The global economic downturn did present a challenge to this agenda, said Mr de Boer: in Copenhagen, a method of making climate change mitigation ‘pay for itself’, without the need to mobilise extra finance from Government, should be found.

The Minister defended the Government against comments from the audience that campaigns relying on individual voluntary, rather than society-wide mandatory, action did not go far enough. She stressed that as an elected body, the Government could not realistically impose radical measures upon voters if it wished to retain their support. The Government would instead proceed through consensus building amongst the public, whilst introducing legislation to necessitate business taking action to mitigate climate change which it would not previously have done. She noted that the UK Climate Change Act: to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% of 1990 levels by 2050, is groundbreaking legislation.

Mr de Boer viewed accurate pricing as the key to tackling climate change. The price paid for goods and services should adequately reflect the pollution created through their manufacture or consumption. The effect of this would be to stimulate innovation: to bring renewable energy solutions to the market and so drive down the price of using them relative to fossil fuels.

The commitment to tackling climate change was palpable from both The Minister and Mr de Boer and both were optimistic that a deal could be reached in Copenhagen, particularly given the willingness of the new Obama administration to engage with negotiations. Mr de Boer stressed that further refinement would be needed post-Copenhagen, but that it was vital to reach initial agreement this year.

Fresh Scientific Agenda for the US as Obama takes Office

Scientists have high expectations for future scientific and environmental policy as President-elect Barack Obama is sworn in as America's 44th president later today.

The Bush administration has had a somewhat turbulent relationship with the scientific community over the last eight years, attracting serious criticisms for restricting federal funding for research and their decisions regarding global warming and stem cell research. Obama, on the other hand, has put scientific and environmental issues at the top of his agenda.

In a weekly radio and video address he stated that science “holds the key to our survival as a planet, and our security and prosperity as a nation… It's time we… worked to restore America's place as the world leader in science and technology." Since then, he has pledged to reverse Bush's funding limits, and appointed a team of well respected scientists, which has heightened expectations for what actions he will take once he is sworn into office.

Undoubtedly, one of the biggest changes will be the United States policy on climate change. Since his election, Obama has repeatedly indicated he wants to fulfill his campaign promise to create a low-carbon economy and create jobs by investing in renewable energy.

In a speech made at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, Obama said his administration hoped to double the production of renewable energy over the next three years while boosting energy efficiency in 10 million homes (1.6% of US housing) and more than 75% of federal buildings. This will require a well-organized, massive injection of funds. Hopefully, worries that America will not be able to afford to convert their promises into a reality in the prevailing economic climate will remain unfounded.

Government Set to Announce Heathrow Expansion

The UK Government is expected to give the go-ahead to the development of a third runway at London Heathrow later today, following delays to the announcement due to Cabinet unrest.

A new 200mph rail link between London and Birmingham, with a spur from Heathrow to St Pancras station will also be announced.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have pledged to cancel the expansion of Heathrow if either win the next General Election, however certain legal restrictions may make this costly, necessitating compensation to the airport's operator, BAA.

Ministers have described the development as 'green Heathrow' and has offered assurances that EU rules on air and noise pollution will not be breached. Concerns have been raised by NGOs, such as Greenpeace, that expansion of the airport will lead to the Government breaching its own stringent targets on greenhouse gas emissions: a reduction of 80% on 1990 levels by 2050.

Lord Smith Outlines Vision for Environment Agency

At a recent meeting in the House of Commons, Chairman of the Environment Agency (EA) Lord Chris Smith, outlined plans to improve the EA's delivery functions throughout his tenancy as Chair.

Lord Smith described the EA as an "unusual body" and a "diverse beast," insofar as it is "part deliverer, part regulator and part adviser."

The EA is said to be fairly bureaucratic at the moment, and Lord Smith is optimistic bureaucracy can be reduced, with more resources allocated to delivering EA objectives.

There has reportedly been some opposition from EA Officers towards moves to incorporate micro-hydro-electric generators in river systems. As Lord Smith pointed out, the need to combat climate change through reducing emissions must be balanced with other concerns. Some researchers believe that sensitive use of small hydro-electric installations would have a limited impact on the ecology of the river system, and this initiative will doubtlessly be explored further.

Lord Smith mentioned the need to improve communications with local communities. Local knowledge holds immense value in terms of setting planning and conservation objectives, and must be considered critically alongside scientific recommendations.

Touching on the subject of the third runway evidenced Lord Smith's genuine commitment to social, ecological and environmental concerns. Aside from the issue of increased greenhouse gas emissions, Nitrogen pollution from emissions already presents a very real and serious health hazard to residents proximal to Heathrow. A third runway would massively increase the output of harmful noxious gases such as Nitrogen dioxide and breach European Environmental safe emissions limits.

In terms of Climate Change, the EA's primary responsibility is to help those unable to cope with the consequences. Lord Smith backed the use of Carbon & Capture and Storage technology in new coal-fired power stations, although he recognised the existing shortcomings in available technology.

Speaking of successes, Lord Smith announced success in reducing input of pollutants to the environment, highlighting a 59% and 48% reduction of Mercury and Cadmium respectively, to our freshwater systems over the last year.

In terms of regulating polluters, Lord Smith expressed the need to pursue the "bad guys", i.e. the worst polluters, with more frequent visits from EA officers, whilst reducing inspections to companies and individuals showing marked improvements.

When asked on how to bridge the gap between EA 'field agents' and policy-makers, Lord Smith said that The Environment Agency will be a statutory consultee of the Planning Act. This will hopefully streamline communication

The talk was broad in scope, President-elect Barack Obama even got a look-in (i.e. alluding to Obama's policy plans to Ministers can be an effective persuasive tool!). Overall the outlook for the EA looks set to be very positive whilst Lord Chris Smith remains as Chair.

Check out the EA's website here for further news and updates.

Seasons Greetings from the BES Science Policy Team to readers of the Blog!

The River Evenlode, Oxfordshire: Image courtesy of the author, Charlie Butt

Oil Production Will "Plateau" in Eleven Years

In a recent interview with the Guardian, Faith Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, revealed oil production will plateau by 2020, peaking within 20 years.

It is anticipated that the extraction of tar sands will have to increase in order to fill the deficit left by faltering oil supplies. Tar sand extraction is known to be immensely environmentally damaging, and although an increase in tar sand production would contribute to global energy needs by 2% within this time frame, although the nearly 2 million barrels of oil produced would inevitably inhibit greenhouse gas emissions targets.

This revelation comes weeks after the Government released their Building a Low Carbon Economy report, setting out plans to 'de-carbonise' the economy. If commitments are met, and a rapid frameshift in the public mindset ensues, it might be possible to wean ourselves off of oil as well as avoid a climate change 'tipping point'. Such a 'tipping point' would result in climatic positive feedback, whereby increased temperatures result in further temperature rises causing a breakdown in natural systems that we depend on, with a chaotic outcome for life on earth.

The media and entertainment services have a responsibility to change attitudes and encourage greener lifestyles. Road transport makes up most of the UK's transport emissions, making for a key target in transport emissions reductions. The immensely popular BBC TV series 'Top Gear' is thought to have played a part in dampening enthusiasm for 'green' cars. However, encouragingly they recently praised Honda's new hydrogen-fuelled FCX Clarity, which performs like an ordinary car and emits only water. Although hydrogen fuel celled-cars are still in their infancy in terms of mass production and feasibility, broad media support for alternative fuels such as hybrid technology and electric vehicles can only help meet emissions targets and help combat climate change.

As the recent global financial meltdown has illustrated, individual economies are now so tightly interconnected that, much like in natural systems, problems and perturbations in one part of the system create shockwaves through the wider system, much like the entire global financial system. The concept of safe, independent economies is clearly no longer relevant and we must now take a systems-based approach to solving complex problems. Britain has taken the lead in moving towards a low-carbon economy, but it is essential the rest of the world gets on board too. This will certainly require developed countries to provide financial assistance as well as technological expertise to developing countries.

The world depends on energy, but cannot continue on the current path of unsustainable growth and pollution. Climate change is not an insurmountable problem but the clock is ticking and so the moves towards sustainable development and clean technology must accelerate.

Check developments of the 14th Climate Change Conference of the Parties here:

http://www.poznan2008.com/

Read the Government's Building a Low Carbon Economy Report here:

http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/commission/pdf/cemep-response.pdf

Reformation of EU Emissions Trading System Required To Reduce Green House Gases

The House of Lords EU Committee have produced a report calling for an overhaul of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), in order to meet ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG)reduction targets, since it is the main tool of the EU to reduce carbon emissions.

Although the EU ETS underpins UK and EU climate change policy, its effectiveness in delivering its aim (to reduce GHGs) remains unproven. The Committee strongly urges that the System be reformed, despite reservations from various member states. For example Poland have expressed opposition to auctioning of carbon permits, largely due to their heavy dependence on coal burning for power generation.

However the Committee have called for all allowances to be auctioned by 2013, and if exceptions are made to member states it will be on the condition that clean coal technologies are developed and trialed during the transition phase.

Concern has also been expressed over 'carbon leakage' - that is industries producing excessive emissions relocate to countries with less stringent regulations - although these industries are in the minority. The Committee recommended these industries be identified by 2009, but no decision will be made to allocate them 'free emission permits' - that is the freedom to continue polluting - until after the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009.

The Committee identified two risk areas regarding the ETS:

• Industries will not comply with regulations
• The ETS will not be joined up to global trading schemes and will therefore not fulfill their potential

Speaking about the report Lord Sewel, Chairman of the House of Lords EU Sub-Committee on Environment and Agriculture, said:

"Linking the EU ETS to other emissions trading schemes will be essential in order to maximise its environmental performance and minimise its economic costs. Worryingly, the prospects for such links appear to be poor."

"Both the UK and the EU's climate change policy is riding on the success of the ETS, which as yet is far from guaranteed. A timid deal at the summit of EU leaders could produce the worst of all worlds."

The report will be available online shortly after publication at: http://www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/lords_s_comm_d.cfm

Building a Low Carbon Economy - Government Report Released

Defra yesterday launched their report 'Building a Low Carbon Economy', which sets out plans to move away from our fossil-fuel based society.

Broadly, the Climate Change Bill will put into statute the UK’s targets to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 60% by 2050 and 26% by 2020, against average 1990 emissions.

If a global deal isn't reached in Copenhagen next year, then the target will be as follows:

• 2008-2012: 3018 million tonnes
• 2013-2017: 2,819 million tonnes
• 2018-2022: 2,570 million tonnes

If the international deal is reached in 2009, then the intended budget for greenhouse gas emission limits will be:

• 208-2012: 3018 million tonnes
• 2013-2017: 2,679 million tonnes
• 2018-2022: 2,245 million tonnes

The government has set a target that 20% of all energy should come from renewable resources by 2020. A Renewable Energy Strategy is due to be published in Spring 2009 that will set clear guidelines on how this target will be achieved. The government also has questionable plans to invest more in nuclear energy in the run up to 2020.

The report includes plans to set clear reductions in carbon emissions from road transport. The King review found that average carbon emissions from cars could feasibly be cut to 100g/km by 2020. The Government is keen to push European legislation to follow suit on this front. This will inevitably have to mean either a reduction in demand from the most polluting vehicles, for example the Porsche Cayenne (358g C/km) and the Range Rover HSE Sport (374g C/km), or prohibitive taxation, failing a change in the wealthy motorists' mindset.

Ambitious plans have been laid down for the building industry. By 2016, all new housing must be carbon neutral, whilst public buildings must meet this target by 2018, and other non-domestic buildings by 2019.

To tackle issues of waste, the 'tax escalator' that has already begun will hopefully reduce emissions from landfill sources and increase recycling.

The government has set progressive targets to reduce the use of inefficient lightbulbs by 2011 in retail and manufacturing, aiming to phase out wasteful practices.

£20 million is being invested by the Department for Transport and the Technology Strategy
Board for a collaborative research programme, aimed at commercialising vehicle technologies that will reduce carbon emissions over the next five to seven years.

Enhancing innovation and building the necessary skills base is at the heart of the Government's plans to build a low carbon economy in the coming years.

An independent expert committee on climate change has been created, chaired by Lord Turner, which will advise the Government on how to meet its emulous targets.

Read the full document, including specific recommendations in response to the Commission on Environmental Markets and Economic Performance (CEMEP) enquiry, at:

http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/commission/pdf/cemep-response.pdf

The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poznań, Poland

Today marks the beginning of the 14th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations on Climate Change.

The meeting has the following aims;

• Agree on a plan of action and programmes of work for the final year of negotiations after a year of comprehensive and extensive discussions on crucial issues relating to future commitments, actions and cooperation
• Make significant progress on a number of on-going issues required to enhance further the implementation of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, including capacity-building for developing countries, reducing emissions from deforestation (REDD), technology transfer and adaptation.
• Advance understanding and commonality of views on "shared vision" for a new climate change regime
• Strengthen commitment to the process and the agreed timeline

EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas stated recently that: "Even if it is too early to expect major breakthroughs, the Poznan conference must shift gear from exploratory discussions to concrete negotiations."

Parties have less than a year to agree on strengthened action on mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology.

It is hoped that the climate talks will form the basis of global deal in Copenhagen at the end of 2009.

View the full schedule here.

Climate Change Committee Set Plans to De-Carbonise the Economy

The future of coal power is now in the hands of the climate change committee, as they are due to set out plans to 'de-carbonise' the economy. The committee plans to publish the findings of their report later today.

Environmentalists are keen that the committee sets stringent emission targets from 2020, ensuring that any new coal-fired power stations are fitted with carbon capture and storage technology.

It is expected the climate change committee will recommend interim targets up to 2022, considering the EU aims to reduce emissions by up to 30% by up to 2050.

The executive secretary of the UN climate secretariat, Yvo de Boer said that the international talks on a climate change treaty in Poznan, Poland, could set plans on how rich countries can help the developing world cope with the impact of climate change. It is hoped the treaty will come into effect by 2012.

De Boer said: "I think it is important that countries in Copenhagen reach a political agreement that is a response to what scientists tell us need to be done."

Currently rainforest lost is reaching unprecedented levels. The talks may offer new direction to how polluting countries can pay tropical countries to conserve their forests, as a means of reducing CO2 emissions, since forest clearance is a huge contributor to climate change.

Climate Change Bill Receives Royal Assent

After years of campaigning by a multitude of NGOs within Britain for a far-reaching Climate Change Bill, the Government has finally given in and last night the Climate Change Bill received Royal Assent.

The British Ecological Society (BES) responded to the initial Government consultation in 2007, calling for the government to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 70% by 2050, and the BES is extremely pleased that the Government favourably considered our viewpoint.

In fact the Government went further and set binding targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 80% of 1990s levels by 2050. Suprisingly, Lord Turner, the chair of the Climate Change Committee, has pledged support of a third runway at Heathrow with obvious implications in terms of emissions. However, Lord Turner believes that building a third runway at Heathrow will not inhibit targets set out in the bill.

The government has set itself five year carbon budgets that it will be required to not only adhere to, but to provide annual reports on its progress towards meeting the budgets. The first of these budgets will run from 2008 to 2013, with follow-up budgets from 2013 to 2018, and 2018 to 2023.

Announcing the new legislation the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, Ed Miliband, said "Setting the 80 per cent target was the easy part: now the work really begins," he said.

"Government, communities, businesses and individuals need to work together to bring about change."

The ascension of the Climate Change Bill means Britain is now a world leader in tackling climate change. This will hopefully help bring about similar positive changes in other countries that, until now, have been hesitant about making as strong binding commitments as Britain has made.

BES members are invited to comment on this article

Building a Sustainable Future through "Creating a Climate for Change"

The Science Policy team yesterday attended the final day of the annual Environment Agency conference, which saw Jane Davidson, Minister for Environment, Sustainability and Housing at the Welsh Assembly Government, Ed Milliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, and Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, deliver keynote addresses.

Jane Davidson set our her vision for 'One Wales, One Planet', a new scheme which commits Wales to become a 'one planet nation'. The Government aims to reduce the ecological footprint of Wales to 1.88 global Ha per person, from 5.16Ha pp at present. This will involve an 80-90% reduction in the use of carbon-based energy, plus an associated reduction in carbon emissions, a reduction in waste and in travel. Wales is committed to a 3% year-on-year reduction in emissions from 2011.

Ed Milliband, delivering his first speech as Secretary of State at the new Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), emphasised the need to "up the pace", with respect to tackling climate change, calling on the public sector to play a greater role in energy generation. He stressed that carbon emissions from aviation can no longer be overlooked, with an amendment to the UK Climate Change Bill meaning that emissions from aviation will be taken account of in carbon targets. Mr Milliband also highlighted the opportunities for creating "green jobs" which a switch to renewable energy and development of 'green' technologies could bring: "greening the upturn" in the economy which would mark a climb out of recession.

Boris Johnson used his speech to announce a new 'priority parks' initiative, allowing the public to vote for 47 green spaces which they would like to receive investment. The top-10 parks will receive a £400,000 award for improvements. Mr Johnson stated that he had has his 'mind changed' over climate change, based on the 'huge body of scientific evidence'. It was his duty as Mayor, he said, to create a city which is tree-lined, enjoyable and above all, a 'nice' place to live. London could be the centre of a green revolution. The cornerstone of this is the Mayor's recently announced plan to introduce 6-10,000 bicycles to the streets under a cycle-hire scheme, and the introduction of cycle 'super-highways'.

A business forum saw corporate figures questioned by the Chair and audience over their sectors' plans for mitigating and adapting to climate change. One speaker, Mike Barry, Head of Corporate Social Responsibility at Marks and Spencers, highlighted the need for organisations such as M and S to pay heed to 'sound science' when making decisions regarding 'greening' their supply chains, and the importance of gathering multiple stakeholders together to discuss potential solutions based on this.

Policy Shift Could Significantly Reduce UK Emissions

A new report by the Campaign for Better Transport suggests that emissions from transport could be cut by up to 26% of 2006 levels by 2020.

The report highlights the following areas where most emissions could be reduced:

• Reductions in passenger travel emissions of 32%

• Freight emissions reduced by up to 19%

• Cars 25% more fuel efficient

• Car traffic reduced by 15%

• Domestic aviation emissions down 30%

The report suggests that cutting long-distance travel could lead to significant reductions in overall emissions, particularly from long-distance commuters and HGVs.

The government awaits the official findings from the Committee on Climate Change before making any final decisions.

Better Habitat Networks in Europe Will Benefit People and Wildlife

Conservationists and policy makers are conscious that many species ranges' may shift because of climate change, in fact many species have already begun to do so, (although this wasn't detected convincingly in the recent Countryside Survey Report for the UK).

Recent research published in the British Ecological Society's Journal of Applied Ecology investigated the extent to which the Natura 2000 network is capable of supporting European species in the face of climate change.

The investigators analysed how well connected forest, wetland and grassland ecosystems are across NW Europe now, and how they might become as a result of climate change. They also looked at the extent to which habitat networks will be able to facilitate species' movement under a specific climate change model.

The findings suggest that protected areas currently suitable for many species, will no longer be able to support these species in the future. The available habitat for different species in the future will vary, for example available habitat for the black woodpecker Dryocopus martius, marsh warbler Acrocephalus palustris and meadow pipit Anthus pratensis is expected to be around 70%, whereas the agile frog Rana dalmatina and bittern Botaurus stellaris only 6-8%. Considerable range shifts were also predicted, for example the middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopus medius is anticipated to become more abundant in Ireland, the Netherlands and Denmark, as habitat becomes less suitable in France.

The authors emphasise the need to strengthen connectivity between ecosystem networks on a large spatial scale. Given the uncertainty surrounding the frequency of extreme weather events, how representative the study species are and the impact of curbing emissions on climate change, the precautionary principle should be applied.

Thus European policy should aim to broadly meet the needs of as many species as possible by increasing connectivity, whilst considering ecosystem services such as water regulation and carbon fixation. For example increasing wetlands across Europe will offer ecosystem services in terms of winter flood and summer drought alleviation, whilst providing increased connectivity for wetland species such as the bittern.

The research highlights the need to consider wildlife conservation in the context of future climate and habitat change. Presently BRANCH (Biodiversity Requires Adaptation in North Western Europe under a Changing Climate) are helping to fill the policy gaps, by pushing for the integration of planning with biodiversity needs.

The journal article is available for purchase from Wiley Interscience.

Read more about Natura 2000 here.

Source: Vos, C.C., Berry, P., Opdam, P. Baveco, H., Nijhof, B., O'Hanley, J., Bell, C., and Kuipers, H. (2008). Adapting landscapes to climate change: examples of climate-proof ecosystem networks and priority adaption zones. Journal of Applied Ecology. 45: 1722-1731.

Stern Responds to Climate Change Critics

The Stern report provided the economic case for global action to tackle climate change, but as with many evidence-issues linked to climate change, it wasn't without criticism.

The bar has been raised again for critics of climate change, with the release of a new report by Dietz and Stern (2008) calling for even more urgent action to mitigate the effects of climate change. The report makes the case for the ethical implications of inaction too, and calls for a far-reaching global political agreement on green house gas targets.

Like the previous report, the new report emphasises how the cost of mitigating climate change is far less than having to cope with the effects. The authors predict temperatures could rise by up to five degrees centigrade if a 'business as usual' approach is taken. This could have extreme consequences such as the loss of the thermohaline circulation and the total collapse of the ice sheets.

In addition to the ethical case concerning the negative impacts on the developing world as a result of inaction by the developed world, it is unethical leaving future generations to cover the costs imposed by the present generation, say the authors.

450-550ppm CO2e (a measure that encompasses the effect of all known GHGs) is the recommended upper limit of greenhouse gas emissions the world should allow, the review says.
550ppm is the point at which the world could warm to four degrees centigrade, well worth avoiding since agricultural output would be severely affected, and major cities and international ports could become inundated.

So far, the USA under Republican leadership has been extremely reluctant to commit to binding GHG agreements. If the president elect, Barack Obama commits to pledges made to tackle climate change in the run-up to the US election, it might be easier to get the rest of the world on board. This may well require a bi-lateral agreement between the US and China, the world's second biggest polluter, so that neither country is at an economic disadvantage as a result of measures taken to tackle climate change. Greater investment in low-emission technology can boost a nation's economy whilst tackling climate change at the same time. However scientists must continue to make the case for mitigating climate change, in order to affect the necessary change at the policy level.


See the European Commission website for further details

To access the IPCC Fourth Assessment report - Climate Change 2007 www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm

Reference: Dietz, S. and Stern, N. (2008). Why Economic Analysis Supports Strong Action on Climate Change: A Response to the Stern Review's Critics. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. Doi:10.1093/reep/ren001.

Towards A Sustainable Society - What is the Correct Role for Science?

Yesterday evening the Royal Society played host to the Institute of Environmental Sciences' Burntwood Lecture, presented by former Friends of the Earth Director and Special Adviser to the Prince of Wales' Rainforest Project: Tony Juniper.

All the major environmental issues of the last fifty years or so were mentioned: the effects of DDT accumulation in raptors; sulphur and nitrogen deposition creating acid rain, impacting on people, forests and livestock; CFC particulates causing ozone depletion; and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting in global climate change.

Tony emphasised the critical role that science played in firstly, the identification of these issues as serious problems for the environment and society, but also in making the case for effective policy change.

Policy change came in the form of the Montreal Protocol in order to end CFC use in domestic products and allow stratospheric ozone layer to recover. None of these issues have been 'solved' completely - although DDT was eventually banned in Britain and Europe, it is still used widely in malaria hotspots across Africa to reduce mosquito abundance and disease incidence. However effective steps have been taken around the world to reduce the relative impacts of these pollutants.

The emphasis of the talk was on the biggest challenge the world faces currently: climate change. With the previous environmental problems, the compounds requiring bans had effective alternatives (i.e. less harmful pesticides) or were an unimportant by-product of an important process, (e.g. CFCs from refrigerator coolants and nitrogen and sulphuric oxides from power stations). Unlike the aforementioned issues, tackling climate change requires massively reducing the output of GHGs; gases inextricably linked to the everyday lives of everyone on the planet in terms of food, transport and energy.

In summary, Tony's talk covered well-trodden ground and seemed to lack any refreshing or challenging ideas. The message that the scientist's role, is and will continue to be instrumental in tackling climate change and emerging threats, is an important one. It is imperative however that innovative ways continue to be sought to engage government, policy-makers and justify the case for change to the wider public.

Check out the Royal Society website here, and the Institute of Environment Sciences website here

REDD - Tackling Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss

Climate change remains a present and future threat to biodiversity. REDD, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, aims to curb climate change by conserving the world's remaining forests.

REDD aim to ensure that measures to tackle climate change include accounting for the carbon sinks that forests and bogs provide. After lenghty dialogue, both the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol have made provisions to reduce emissions released from forest degradation and deforestation.

December 07 witnessed the unilateral agreement between the conference of the parties to strengthen agreements made at the fourteenth conference. UNEP and WCMC have now produced a paper that outlines opportunities for multiple benefits of forest protection, including increased watershed and coastal protection.

It seems likely that protection of native forests will offer greater resilience to the effects of climate change than new plantations, and this should be taken into consideration in decision-making.